Toronto at Tampa Bay

We were on Tampa when Kazmir took the mound a few days ago. Doug Waechter is no Scott Kazmir but I still like the D-Rays today as a big home dog. Granted, TB has their issues but to get over 1.5 to 1 at home with them in this situation is value. Especially when they face Gustavo Chacin. Chacin has a 5.11 overall ERA but it's gone up to 6.08 over his last three starts. I mean Oakland pounded him for 5 earned runs in 3 innings. He's prone to give up dings (1.25 per start) while not striking out a lot (3 per start). He's off a good outing against Boston but I'm not sold. Tampa Bay does better against left-handed pitchers, too. Road teams hitting .285+ with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start facing a team with a bad bullpen (ERA over 5.00) are only 15-46 (25%) over the past decade. And, Toronto just hasn't shown they can put several wins together in a row. They are 1-10 this season off 2 consecutive wins. Home dog here.