Toronto at Tampa Bay

There aren't good looking numbers on the surface when you look at today's starter for Tampa Bay Willie Davis, as he has been hit hard in his last three starts. Looking closer, all those starts were on the road where he hasn't pitched nearly as well as he has at home. He has had one bad home start allowing 7 runs, but otherwise has been very solid with a 3.02 ERA at home in all other starts. He certainly is more than capable of shutting down this Toronto club. The Jays are now also 3-9 in their last 12 after scoring 2 or less. Contrary to those poor numbers is the Rays 10-3 mark behind Davis after scoring 5+ in their last game. Play the Rays. The Jays have scored all of 4 runs in the first two games of this series, and over their last five games have scored 3 or less in four of them, so I don't expect much here today. The Rays have been UNDER and profitable to the tune of 55-27-4 to the UNDER in their last 86 as a favorite, including 17-4 to the UNDER at home as a favorite behind Davis. The Jays are a perfect 6-0 to the UNDER behind Cecil against a winning team in his last six starts. Play Tampa Bay and take the UNDER.