Toronto at New York

This one takes guts - no two ways about it. But, I'm willing to make it. I'm well aware that Josh Towers has not pitched up to par this season, but this is a great spot for him to bring his A game as historically he has pitched very well against the Yankees. Over 20 innings he has given up about 9 runs. At first look that might seem like a lot, however, considering the pace that Toronto puts up runs and their prior success against Johnson, we have a decent bet when we are getting almost 2.5 to 1 odds. Johnson has given up 10 runs in just over 14 innings against the Bluejays last year. Thus, we get a live dog today in what should be a slugfest and considering that the Bluejays are putting up over 6 runs a game to the Yanks 5.83. The Blue Jays are 3-0 in their last 3 games versus left handers and an incredibly solid 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +200 or more. It may surprise that with Johnson on the mound, the Yankees have only won 55% of the time over the past three seasons! To support this kind of line, he'd need a 73% mark just to break even. To cap it off, the Yanks are just 1-8 over the past two seasons against teams with a .285+ batting average. Bottom line - Yankees should win, but I don't think they win 8 out of 10 of these and thus an expected long-term value on the dog at +240.