Toronto at Kansas City

I almost pulled the trigger on KC last night and kicked myself later as they won as a big underdog. Better late than never. I like the Royals here again as a home dog. As bad as this team is on the road (12-33 / 27%), they are not so horrible at home (17-21 / 45%). Meanwhile, Toronto is the opposite. Very solid at home (29-17 / 63%), they are not great on the road (18-20 / 47%). Back to KC - they score over a full run better per game at home than away. They actually score quite well at home at 5.3 runs per game. And they are, in an under the radar kind of way, somewhat hot right now. Overall in their sixteen games they are 11-5! At home during that strecth they are 7-2. That's a picture of a very good team. Now, I know they are not that good but they don't deserve to be a big home dog here against a sub-.500 road team. Ty Taubenheim has the better ERA in this matchup be he's 0-4 in his starts while KC puts an All-Star pitcher on the mound. Redman owns a lifetime 3-0 record and 2.08 ERA vs. Toronto. Finally, underdogs up to +150 that are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 28-12 (70%) in July games over the past five seasons. Royals here.