Toronto at Boston

The Red Sox are coming off a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies and suddenly are pitching better and playing some defense in the field, off a 3-1 win. The UNDER is 4-1 when the Red Sox face the AL East. Veteran David Ortiz hit his 497th career home run on Sunday before being lifted with tightness in his right calf, so a key part of this offense is not 100%. Red Sox starter Rick Porcello has turned his season around allowing 1, 0, 1, 2, and 2 runs in five of his last six starts. He struck out a career-high 13 and allowed one earned run in eight innings against the Yankees on Tuesday, but ended up with the loss in a 3-1 final. Porcello's rediscovery of his ideal arm slot and release point on his two-seam fastball has allowed him to reclaim success. The UNDER is 4-1-1 when he starts, including 4-1-1 UNDER the total at home. Toronto has a fine veteran arm going in Mark Buehrle (14-6, 3.53 ERA), who's been getting some extra rest. He looked sharp his last start when he held Detroit to two runs (one earned) and five hits in six innings to earn the win. Buehrle had no trouble carving up the Boston lineup on July 1, allowing one run on four hits and striking out seven to get the win. The UNDER is 26-11-2 when the Blue Jays are a favorite of -110 to -150, as well as 5-2-1 UNDER the total when Buehrle faces the Red Sox. Play this one UNDER the total.