Toronto at Boston

The Red Sox are concerned about Diasuke Matsusaka. His innings are mounting and he has not pitched this much over his entire career. When he pitched in Japan to a 108-60 career record, his worst two years were when he pitched the most innings. His combined record in those years was just a mediocre 29-28. He has now reached 176 innings pitched, and his numbers are beginning to show wear. The Red Sox are just 6-11 in his last 17 starts, and have lost his last four. Matsusaka has worked 18.1 innings in his last three starts to an ERA of 6.38. His undoing is his bouts with wildness, as he has walked 14 in his last four starts in just 25 innings. The Red Sox have beat up on the weaker sisters in baseball, but stand just 10-14 in their last 24 games played against teams that are over .500. The Jays are streaking right now as they have won three in a row, and five of six. Jesse Litsch has pitched very well. His last seven starts have produced an ERA of just 2.47 and he keeps the Jays in every game he takes the hill. The Jays are not intimidated by Fenway, as they have won six of the last eight times they have come in here. We like the Jays to take the opener.