Toronto at Boston

Toronto is on a 6-1 run outscoring the Yankees, White Sox, and Mariners by a combined 37-15 in those seven contests. The Blue Jays are 9-3 against the AL East and 43-16 versus a righty starter. Toronto's offense is Top 10 in on-base percentage, while the pitching is 12th in ERA (3.90). Starter Jose Berrios has a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28+ innings and last season had a 2.37 ERA in 19 innings against the Red Sox. The Blue Jays are 23-9 on the road versus a righty starter and 38-15 against a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Boston's defense is terrible, 26th in pitching ERA (4.99), plus 25th in fielding. 37-year-old Corey Kluber (6.75 ERA) is 0-3 at Fenway Park this season with an 8.78 ERA. Toronto went 16-3 against Boston in 2022, part of a 21-5 run versus the Red Sox, including winning the last eight at Fenway. Play Toronto.