Toronto at Baltimore

Toronto may be a .500 team on the road and .500 overall, but they are really worse than that. Toronto is 23rd in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 27th in on base percentage, with no power (25th in slugging). The pitching is just as bad, and they go with aging soft thrower Mark Buehrle. He is off a game against the Astros giving up eight hits and nine base runners in 5+ innings. He's not a guy at this stage in his career suited for the small parks of the AL East, and the Blue Jays are 3-7 in Buehrle's last 10 starts vs. the American League East. The Blue Jays are 3-9 against teams with losing record and face a Baltimore squad that has plenty of power on offense. The Orioles are 9-4 against a left-handed starter and 7-2 at home against southpaws. The Blue Jays are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in Baltimore, so grab the better team at home at this price. Play Baltimore.