Texas at Toronto

Sure Kevin Millwood is pitching well this year. He's 9-5 with a 4.66 ERA. But, he's gotten smacked around lately. Over his last three starts against San Francisco, Houston and Baltimore, he posted a 7.05 ERA. And, he's never beaten the Blue Jays in his career (6.86 ERA). Milwood is also just 2-12 in the second half of the season in his career vs. high scoring teams (5.2+ runs per game). Casey Jansen hasn't done very well over his last five starts but too much weight is being put on the starting pitchers here. Note that Toronto is 5-2 in their last seven games averaging 6.3 runs per game. They are 32-19 athome! Teams at +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing against opponent with a cold starting pitcher (ERA over 7.00 over his last 5 starts) are just 32-66 (33%) over the last 5 seasons. Wrong team favored in this one and we'll take the home dog.