Texas at Minnesota

Texas wants this game. They won the American League pennant last year, but couldn't win in Minnesota. They lost by a combined total of 38-19 and you can bet they remember that. The Rangers are the much better team here and these odds are short. Derek Holland has pitched very well on the road (3-1 with a 2.70 ERA). Despite a solid ERA, Nick Blackburn owns a losing home record thanks to very little run support, especially without Joe Mauer. The Twins are averaging just 3.4 runs per game at home this season. And, Minnesota's bullpen has been atrocious (6.13 home ERA). Granted, Texas’ bats are weak right now, but the Twins are just 4-14 this season at home vs. AL teams batting under .266. They are also 8-21 in expected close games (line of +125 to -125). Minnesota has been hot of late, but that doesn't change the fact that they are over-matched. Play on Texas.