Texas at Los Angeles

Cliff Lee comes into this contest with a 2.40 ERA (2.20 at home and 1.37 over his last three starts). He's going deep (8.2 innings per start) and seems to be improving as the season goes on. Jered Weaver has similar numbers. He's got a 3.19 overall ERA but at home, it's 1.88. The Angels are averaging only 4.3 runs per game at home and they do even worse vs. LHP like Lee. Versus southpaws, this team is hitting a horrendous .236 and averaging only 4.0 runs per game. Texas can score at home, but on the road they struggle offensively, averaging only 4.5 runs per game. In 27 day games this season, they are batting only .261 and averaging 3.9 runs per game. Weaver thrives vs. good teams. He's 15-5 UNDER the past two seasons when facing teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game.  He's also a perfect 9-0 UNDER this season at home and 7-0 UNDER in games with a total under 9. I see this game going UNDER the low total.