Tampa Bay at Texas

Yes, Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford has a hot bat (12 game hitting streak batting .595 over his last eight games). But, he's facing a solid pitcher in Kason Gabbard. Gabbard is 5-0 at home with a 2.48 ERA. Jason Hamel goes for the D-Rays. He's just 1-1 on the year in 14 games? Why so few decidisions? He's only started four games, averaging just 4.1 innings per start. No only doesn't he last long, his ERA is over 6. The D-Ray bullpen, which we will likely see early, is as bad as it gets (6.47 ERA, 8.29 on the road). Contrast that with Texas' which has a 3.56 ERA and 77% save percentage (3.48 at home). Tampa Bay is 19-38 on the road and 14-21 vs. lefities like Gabbard. How does Tampa Bay pull off the rare road victory? They get down early of course. Then they get lucky late against a bad bullpen and squeak out a win. But, Tampa Bay really struggles against teams that don't give away early leads. The past two seasons they are 12-42 on the road vs. good bullpens that convert 75% of save opportunities. The truth is, this team is terrible on the road. They are 39-100 the past two seasons on the road including 15-47 as a dog of +125 to +175. This is a bargain price.