Tampa Bay at New York

The Tampa Bay Rays have surprised everyone with their amazing 31-12 start, but things have not been quite so easy of late. The Rays have had a very easy schedule, and on the season they are just 11-9 vs a winning team and 14-10 vs. a team that is .450 or better. They are 17-2 against teams below .450. The Mets have underachieved so far at 21-23, so I think we get some value here. This series is even at 1-1 so there's a lot at stake in this one. Tampa Bay is just 3-5 in their last eight, and I'm backing the home side to close this out. Make the play on the NY Mets.