Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Yes, huge line I know - but hear me out. Much of what applied to yesterday's 4-star pick on the Twins applies again today. The D-Rays are the third-worst road team in the league (now 17-36). They've lost six straight while Minnesota has won six in a row. As bad as Tampa is on the road, Minnesota is that good at home (actually better). The Twins are the best home team in the entire league having won 36 out of 47 in the Metrodome including a 23-2 stretch dating back to late May. After last night's win, they are 22-4 as a big favorite of -150 or higher this season. They score 5.9 per game at home. Tampa is scoring 2.7 runs per game over their last seven. per game over their last seven. To make matters worse for the D-Rays, Minnesota starts Johan Santana and his 2.93 ERA. At home he's a perfect 6-0 with a 2.40 ERA and over the past two seasons he's 24-4 in dome games. He's also 20-2 over that span vs. losing teams. Finally, road underdogs of +150 or more batting .255 or worse on the season after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 9-52 (15%) over the last 5 seasons. Yes, very big line here but a game I can't resist as I see no way for Tampa to win this one.