Tampa Bay at Boston

Tampa Bay has a losing record overall and on the road. Boston is 19-11 on the season and 12-3 at home. Yet we are laying just -140 here. Boston has gone 17-5 in their last 22 games. Yet they are laying just -140 here at home. The Rays average 4.4 runs per game on the road and 3.5 per game vs. LHP. Boston averages 6.1 per game vs. LHP and 6.9 per game at home. Yet, we are laying just -140 here. The Red Sox have the bullpen advantage and... well, you get the idea. This is obviously the Scott Kazmir factor but it's an overreaction. Is Kazmir enough to virtually even out a game here with the advantages Boston has? No. And, further reason to like Boston here is that Kazmir is just 3-3 on the season with a 6.00 ERA. Jon Lester is no slouch. He's posted a better ERA on the season than Kazmir. With Lester on the mound, the Red Sox are 20-3 the past three seasons as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is just 4-13 this season to a line of +125 to -125 including 2-9 on the road in that situation. Boston gets the call here.