Tampa Bay at Boston

Streaky Boston has gone from a 10-game skid to a six-game win streak! Ace lefty Jon Lester looks to keep the hot run going. He may have a losing record (5-6), but Lester has had a fine season with a 3.45 ERA, fanning 83 in 73 innings with only 21 walks. The Red Sox are 32-10 in Lester's last 42 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and the Rays are 0-7 in their last seven road games. Boston faces lefty Eric Bedard, who has been decent (4.10 ERA), but the Red Sox are 24-10 against a left-handed starter. Boston has home field, is on a red-hot run, and the Rays are a poor offensive team at 22nd in baseball in runs scored and 25th in slugging. In addition, this total is too high. Boston is getting good pitching and defense, on a 4-0 run UNDER the total, plus one of the better bullpens in the game. Tampa Bay is 5-1-1 UNDER the total after a loss, and the UNDER is 19-9-2 in Jon Lester's last 30 starts. When these rivals meet, the UNDER is 17-4 in the last 21 meetings in Boston, plus 6-2 UNDER the total when Lester pitches in Fenway against the Rays. Play Boston and the Rays/Red Sox UNDER the total.