Tampa Bay at Baltimore

The bad news for the Rays is that they have now fallen 2.5 games behind New York for the AL East lead. The good news is that they have a very comfortable 7.5 game lead over Boston for the wild card. Don't look now, but Baltimore is playing some decent baseball to end the season. They have won five of their last eight games with losses coming only from Tampa Bay and Boston. Their offense has picked up of late while the Ray's offense has taken a step back. Over the past two seasons, the Rays have produced a 42-59 mark on the run line on the road when the total is in this range (8.5 to 10). They are also 3-17 over that time span vs. the run line on the road after a game in which they allowed 8+ runs. I like Baltimore to avoid a blowout loss here.