Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Tampa Bay has split its last four games, including losses to the Yankees and Orioles as chalk of -180 and -127. They're also on a 4-2 run with three of the wins by just one run. Jalen Beeks (6.75 ERA) will start and throw a few innings but hasn't been very good allowing 23 base runners (10 walks) in 16 innings. The Rays are 42-51 on the road against teams that have a bullpen that averages 3.2+ innings. Baltimore is 10-5 at home and 22-12 after having lost three of four with a bullpen that is the fourth-best in baseball (3.20 ERA). Dean Kremer faces the Rays for the first time this season after having a 2.70 ERA against them in 2022 when he had a 2.84 at home. His teams are 9-2 when he starts against a winning squad, as well as 17-8 when he faces a team that strikes out 7 or more times per contest. Baltimore has won five of the last seven versus the Rays and the wagering value is on the home team to win the game or lose by one run. Play Baltimore on the run line.