The last week of the MLB season often has teams trying to secure a playoff spot, and others that have been eliminated quite some time ago. Today in the newsletter we will take a peak at how some of these elite teams finish the season, from game 155 to game 161 (game 162 has its own rules, the finale).
The first thing needed to do is establish what exactly an elite team is? The situation here calls for a team heading into the final week of the regular season with more than 90 wins. Let's set up exactly when they are a punching bag for bettors:
1) Play against team has greater than 90 wins
2) Play against team is a favorite of less than -175
3) Total is less than 9.5
4) Final week of the season game number 156-161 (season finale not applicable)
These elite favorites have fallen very hard at 45-72 to an average line of -140! Playing against them has yielded a 72-45 record to an average line of +130, which represents an ROI of +42.2% and has had 11 straight winning seasons! Winning 61.5% of bets at +130 odds is unheard of! Until now!
St. Louis has over 90 wins, and when that has been the case, the favorite is 3-8, even worse! Make the play on St. Louis.
This pick was released to clients on September 28, 2015 at 7:30AM ET.
MLB
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
September 28, 2015
7:05 PM Eastern
1 unit on St. Louis +130 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 2.3)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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