St. Louis at Chicago

Paul Maholm has gone 6-2 at home, allowing just 20 earned runs in 65 innings pitched. Over his last five starts, he's posted a 0.96 ERA, winning all five. I'm riding that arm here. Yes, the Cards can hit, but Maholm has proven he can handle tough lineups. He's 21-12 in his last 33 at home vs. NL teams that average 5+ runs per game. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is just 8-17 in his last 25 road games in expected low-scoring games (total is set under 8). Take the Cubs at home here.