Seattle at Texas

Texas is actually scoring at home this season at 4.9 runs per contest. Both teams start pitchers who've done very well in Bedard and Padilla, but the bullpens here can give up runs in bunches. Seattle's has a 5.53 ERA and is struggling with control. The last two seasons, Seattle is 50-38 OVER vs. teams scoring under 4.8 runs per game and 20-11 OVER vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or better. Texas is 12-4 OVER this season vs. low-scoring teams (under 4.8 runs per game). The Rangers are also 14-5 OVER this season following a loss. Padilla is 20-10 OVER the past two seasons in all games including 11-3 OVER to a total of 9 or 9.5.