Seattle at Cleveland

Felix Hernandez owns an 8-9 record. Is he bad? No! He's great. He's posted a 2.81 ERA. The problem for him is lack of run support. With him pitching well, and Seattle bats dead, the Mariners are 14-9 UNDER in his starts. Justin Masterson has pitched well at home this season (4.18 ERA) so he'll be good enough against this Mariners lineup. Mariners games have averaged just 5.2 runs per game over their last seven and this horrible offense has struggled the most in day games (2.9 runs per game). Cleveland averages just 4.0 runs per game and over their past seven, that's dropped to 3.4. When facing a bad team (under .470), Hernandez is 14-3 UNDER no the road. Seattle is 28-17 UNDER this season when coming off an OVER. That includes 12-1 UNDER when coming off a 4+ run win. I like this one to go UNDER the total.