San Francisco at Washington

Bettors simply don't like Washington. But they are losing by fading this team. Nearly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Giants in this game and I think they are again on the wrong side. The Nats are a .500 team at home, despite their lack of offense. The Giants are barely over .500 on the road and they have managed just 3.7 runs per game this season (2.6 over their last seven). In day games this year, San Francisco is just 5-6 while Washington is 6-4. Matt Cain has been good this year, but below average in his last three starts (4.86 ERA). Jordan Zimmermann has posted a 3.93 ERA in his three home starts. Cain hasn't been able to take advantage of poor hitting teams like Washington as he is 11-22 in his last 33 starts vs. NL teams with a .250 or worse batting average. Washington likes home cooking as they are 36-29 the past two seasons after three straight home games. They are also 34-27 over that span as an underdog. I’m playing on Washington. I also like the UNDER. The Giants get just 3.7 per game while Washington manages 3.8 per game. Both of these pitchers are capable and both teams have solid (Washington) or great (San Francisco) bullpens. Following a game in which they allowed 2 runs or less, the Giants are 83-58 UNDER the past three seasons. Washington is 22-9 UNDER the past two seasons after scoring and allowing 3 or fewer runs. Take the home team and the UNDER here.