San Francisco at Philadelphia

It's been eight years since the Giants swept the Phillies here. I don't see it happening here. San Francisco has benefited from recent great play while Philly is really struggling, but these are more of an anomaly than something we can count on continuing. The Giants have averaged 6.6 runs per game over their last five games, but that kind of production won't keep up. The reality is that this is a team averaging 4.1 runs per game. Barry Zito has been very inconsistent this season and is capable of giving up a lot of runs. Under Charlie Manuel, the Phils are 69-36 in July home games and 70-36 in home games on Saturdays (games typically with big crowd support). I'll back those long-term numbers here and take Philadelphia on the -1.5 runline.