San Francisco at Milwaukee

The Brewers have won the first two games by a combined score of 22-16. San Francisco today starts Noah Lowry - ouch! Is there anyone more cold? In his last three starts vs. Colorado and the Cubs, he gave up 20 runs in just 10.7 innings. That's a 16.89 ERA. He's 1-5 in his road starts this season and he's pitching for a team that is 33-45 on the road. They've won just once in their last seven games, allowing 11.1 runs per game over that span. Milwaukee on the other hand is 46-33 at home and starting a good pitcher. Chris Capuano is 8-4 at home with a 2.99 ERA. Home teams that have scored 9+ runs for two straight games facing an opponent that has allowed 9+ runs for two straight games are 63-26 (71%) over the past five years. You say but wait - Milwaukee isn't that good. Well, consider that Lowry is 1-11 this season vs. losing teams. Meanwhile Capuano is 14-3 as a home favorite up to -150 over the past two seasons. Brew Crew here.