San Francisco at Miami

We've faded the Giants on the road a lot this year but we like them in this spot. They are riding a season-high three game road winning streak and they face a struggling Dontrelle Willis who has put together a 1-8 record over his last 14 starts. He's fallen apart in late season play the past two seasons (4-10 vs. teams with losing records). On the mound for the Giants is Noah Lowry who has posted a 13-7 mark with a 3.28 ERA and he's been brilliant his last three starts (no losses, 4 earned runs in 16 innings). Florida is about as bad at home as San Francisco on the road. The Giants' problem is offense or lack thereof. But, Florida can't even beat bad offensive teams. They are 10-21 this season vs. NL opponents that score 4.3 or less per game. We'll fade Florida here as the Marlins are just 12-23 this season in expected close games (-125 to +125).