San Francisco at Colorado

There was a time when Tim Lincecum deserved to be a big road favorite, but that time isn't this season. He's just 5-11 with a 5.62 ERA. On the road he's 2-6 with a sky high 8.17 ERA, so this line is reputation based, not fact based. Granted, Colorado the Rockies have their issues, but this is a winnable home game. At home Colorado averages 5.8 runs per game and their offense is doing it lately as they have averaged 6.0 per game the last five. The Giants have tagged Colorado in the first two games, but just isn't going to continue at that torrid pace. If we even go back to last season, the Giants are just 9-16 with Lincecum toeing the rubber against division opponents. Take the live division home dog here. Also take the UNDER. After two games that averaged over 20 runs each, we get some value on the UNDER here as things revert back towards the mean. Giants games average 8.1 runs per game this season and the team scores only 4.0 per game vs. RHP. Over the past two seasons, the Giants are 14-3 UNDER following a game in which their bullpen got rocked for 4+ runs, including a perfect 8-0 UNDER if they gave up 5+ runs. And, after games that saw 15+ runs scored, San Francisco is 21-7 UNDER the past three seasons. Take the Rockies and the UNDER.