San Diego at St. Louis

While Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in baseball, the Padres remain one of the worst teams. They had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and after that run they went 25-53, good for a winning percentage of just .321. Over 162 games that projects out to 110 losses. It takes more than a good pitcher for a bad team to win and Peavy is a case in point, as the Padres are just 4-8 over his last 12 starts. While he has dominated at home, Peavy has been less than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Kyle Lohse has been the steal of the year, having compiled an 11-2 mark for the Cards. They have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cards are our choice here. A full 60% of Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total and Peavy is allowing 4.5 on the road. He is backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game. The Pads are 11-2 OVER on the road the past three seasons vs. winning teams when starting Peavy. We will also play the OVER here.