San Diego at San Francisco

I always feel that it is dangerous looking at a heavy chalk with a line on the total that sits pretty much at rock bottom at 6. There is simply no margin for error in an anticipated pitching duel, so getting nearly a 2-1 advantage in the line where one play or one pitch is likely to be decisive, beckons money on the dog here. The Padres have been good on the road all year, owning a 4-1 mark in their last five with a total of 6.5 or less, and have six wins in their last eight on the road vs. a winning team. Those numbers pale in contrast to their 9-2 mark in their last 11 played in San Francisco. I respect Lincecum's ability, but the Giants have still lost three of his last four starts. I like San Diego here. I also like the UNDER which is 9-4 to the UNDER in their last 13 vs. a right-hander, and Richard has only seen one of his last eight starts top the total. The Giants bring into this one a 21-5-1 UNDER mark in their last 27 at home, as well as 39-15-3 to the UNDER in all games vs. a losing team. Just two of the last 11 have eclipsed the total when these teams have met here, so take San Diego and play on the UNDER.