San Diego at San Francisco

Yes, Lincecum is great. But, he's not unbeatable as demonstrated by his 6 losses in 17 starts. This line is an overreaction to him starting. In his last three starts he has averaged only 5.8 innings so that leaves a lot of room for the bullpen and the Padres have an advantage in the pen (2.75 ERA). The Giants are 10-17 this season vs. teams with good bullpens (ERA under 3.33). Given that both of these teams have trouble scoring and a low-scoring game is expected, there's no reason San Diego can't pull out a win here. San Diego is 31-25 this season vs. winning teams including 20-10 vs. teams at .540 to .620. They also own a winning record as a road dog this season. Good spot for the dog here.