San Diego at Miami

The Padres have been impressive this season thanks to great pitching. On the road this team is averaging only 3.8 runs per game, so asking them to win here against a team averaging 4.8 per game is asking a lot. Mat Latos has been very good but he's facing another pitcher who has been very good this year in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez owns a 3.30 ERA (2.64 at home). So we have two good pitchers and two very different offenses. I like the home team with the offensive edge. Over the past couple of seasons, the Marlins are 12-3 after a game in which 3 or fewer runs were scored. They are also 25-12 the past three seasons after three straight losses. I'm on the Marlins here.