San Diego at Cleveland

The Cleveland Indians have to feel a bit embarrassed as they have lost the first two games of their series vs. San Diego at home, both as a monster chalk. They are once again huge favorites, and I think the Padres have their attention, and expect the Indians to respond with a focused effort here to avoid the sweep. The Padres are a bad team, and a bad team in a bad spot. The last dozen years has seen the Padres enter Game 3 of a series on the road, having won the first two, producing an ROI of -18.8% in Game 3. Over the same period, after losing the first two of a series at home, the Tribe has come back with an ROI of 15.7% in Game 3. This is certainly a chalky line, but it's also full of value, so play on Cleveland.