San Diego at Chicago

Anytime you can get a pitcher of the quality of James Peavy spotted a run and a half, you have to take a close look. The Cubs were dominating teams at home last season, but haven't gotten the offense clicking yet at Wrigley where they are in the bottom 10 in all of baseball in runs produced at home at 4.4 per game. Jake Peavy certainly isn't the pitcher you want to face to improve upon that. Jake Peavy has pitched to a 2.91 ERA over his career vs. the Cubs, so I wouldn't expect a breakout game from the Cubs here. The Padres have held their opponent to four runs or less in 48 of Peavy's last 69 starts, or just about 70% of the time. The Cubs are just 2-6 at home this year when scoring four runs or less. The runline certainly has some lucrative value here, and I'll play it on the Padres.