San Diego at Arizona

The Padres have been playing way over their head and with Jake Peavy on the mound you would expect that wouldn't change. Then you look inside the numbers and, despite the fact he has pitched well, the Padres are just 3-6 in his nine starts and an even worse 1-3 on the road. That runs the Padres road record to 6-12 in his last 18 road starts, well worth a nice dog price on the Diamondbacks. When you add in the fact that the Padres are 6-19 on the road this season and a woeful 29-61 in their last 90 trips to the desert, value lies on Arizona here and I will go with them as a live dog.