Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh has played four one-run games to open the season. The pitching was expected to be very good and ranked 11th in ERA (3.22). Another promising young arm takes the mound in Carmen Mlodzinski. Last year, he had a 3.38 ERA while holding batters to a .223 average. Last season, Tampa Bay's offense was 29th in slugging, 24th in on-base percentage, and 29th in scoring. They've scored just 10 runs in three games, all at home, against a bad Colorado staff. That included a 2-1 loss as a -185 favorite. Starter Drew Rasmussen had a 4.38 ERA with the Rays at home in 2024, so back the visitors. Play Pittsburgh.