Pittsburgh at New York

You gotta love this New York crowd. They booed Johan Santana in his home opener. He did allow three home runs in that game. And, he is just 3-2 on the season. This one theoretically should be an easy win for him against the Pirates who have lost nine of their last twelve games. That's why this line is so high. We actually think given this line, there's value on the Pirates. They are coming off a win and have their ace on the mound, yet they are getting +230. Snell is 38-31 the past two seasons. Pittsburgh's offense has been nearly as productive offensively as the Mets this season. And, they are getting 4.7 runs per game vs. lefties (compared to the Mets averaging 4.4 per game vs. righties). Versus good starters (3.50 ERA or 1.150 WHIP), the Pirates have been a + unit team over the past decade. The Mets have been a negative-unit money-eater when facing teams that allow 4.8+ runs per game over the past two seasons. They are also just 33-34 as a favorite of -150 or more over that span and 6-9 as a favorite of -200 or more! Back to Santana. Did you know he is just 6-10 as a home favorite and 4-9 in night home games the past two seasons? Will it be a stretch for Pittsburgh to win here? Yes.  Is there value on them at this line? You bet!