Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

The Pittsburgh Pirates surprised a lot of people early with their elevated play, but they have sunk in the second half to fall 23 games off the pace vs. the new NL Central Champs, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have been the best home team in baseball this season with 56 wins and this is a clinching team that has not let up down the stretch as winners of 12 of their last 14 games. The Pirates are 29-86 in their last 115 games on the road vs. a winning team, while Milwaukee is now 42-10 in their last 52 games as a favorite. This looks like a chalky line, but the above numbers show it isn't chalky enough and the value as well as my play is here on Milwaukee.