Pittsburgh at Houston

The Pirates let a 5-0 lead slip away last night, but still remain the better team here with a pitching advantage as well. Paul Maholm has simply been a different pitcher since he carried a 5.82 ERA through his first nine starts when the Pirates won just two of them. He has since worked 122 innings allowing less hits than innings pitched, and has an ERA of 3.69 - more than two runs better. He has done his best work recently, as the Pirates have now won his last four starts. The Astros’ win raised their record to just 3-10 over the last 13. Brandon Backe has made two starts following Tommy John surgery, not pitching deep in games, carrying nearly a 6.00 ERA. It is doubtful they stretch him out here, and the Pirates should have no problems solving his serves. We like the Pirates to take the finale and the series.