Pittsburgh at Houston

Big line but how often do you get to fade the worst team in baseball when facing Roy Oswalt? Pittsburgh is 14-43 on the road. They start Shawn Chacon who has a 9.72 road ERA. Oswalt has a 2.91 home ERA and 5-2 record. The Pirates offense is getting worse as the season wears on. They are now averaging just 4.0 per game on the road and over their past seven games, 2.9 per game. History tells us this pitching matchup really favors the Astros as home teams with an average offensive (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) starting a pitcher who walked 1 or fewer hitters each of his last 2 outings facing a poor starting pitcher (ERA of 5.70 or worse) are just 38-10 (79%) over the past decade. Astros here.