Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Everyone keeps waiting for the Reds to collapse, but that isn't happening. They own a six game lead with 21 to play. The Pirates have been brutally bad on the road at 14-54 for the season. Put them on the road vs. a right-handed starter and the brutality becomes unthinkable as they are 11-55 in their last 66. That means that they are winning just one of every six, and that is against any team - not a division leader like Cincinnati. That sure leaves a lot of value, even on a sizeable chalk here. The Pirates are also just 8-43 in their last 51 on the road. The Reds are cleaning up after a loss behind Volquez, who has now led them to a 17-4 mark when he takes the hill after a Reds loss. I'll go with Cincinnati in this one.