Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

This line is too high. Yes, Pittsburgh is having their troubles, but they broke through last game. The Reds are a losing team (barely .500 at home) and average just 4.0 runs per game against RHP. They are a sub-.500 team this season as a favorite! Edinson Volquez has been very effective this year but he's showing signs of slowing down as his ERA has gone up 1.50 points in his last three starts as compared to his season average. Since last season, the Pirates are actually 10-3 on the road in late season play against teams that average fewer than 4.4 runs per game. Cincinnati is only 25-40 this season vs. losing teams. They are also 3-13 this season revenging a one-run loss. We'll go with the line value here and back the Pirates.