Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds have been the surprise of the NL off to a 27-20 start on the season. Johny Cueto has electric stuff, but hasn't been able to tune in yet, appearing to have taken a leap forward. The Reds have won his last five starts, where he has yielded a total of just 8 runs. That works out to 1.6 per contest. The Pirates have struggled behind Charlie Morton, and their offense has been limited to 3.3 runs per game vs. right-hand pitching. They have been highly profitable on the UNDER however, playing a light-hitting power team that averages 2.75 extra base hits per game or less, as the UNDER has a 58-36 mark in those games. Cincinnati has been a highly profitable home team, following a game that scored well below expectations - 4 runs or less. They have followed that low-scoring game by going 72-44 to the UNDER next time out. I like the UNDER here.