Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pirates have a strong pen and a strong starter with Juan Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) going, with 32 strikeouts in 31+ innings. He's allowed two earned runs or less in half his starts. Pittsburgh is 8-2 UNDER the total on the road against a team with a winning home record. They face a Cincinnati offense that is not impressive, #17 in baseball in runs scored, #29 in on base percentage. Cincy starter Alfredo Simon has some ugly overall numbers, but he comes off an impressive start in beating the Brewers, allowing three runs and one walk in 7+ innings. The Reds won a defensive duel yesterday, 3-2, and the UNDER is 9-3 in Simon's last 12 starts when the team allows two or fewer runs in their previous game. Play this one to finish UNDER the total.