Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh was fourth in the NL Central last season and especially brutal on the road (28-53). Only two teams in all of baseball had fewer road victories. The Pirates have lost 100 and 101 games in each of the last two years. The offense doesn't have much punch after finishing 27th in runs scored and slugging, plus 28th in on-base percentage. And a defense that was last in the majors in fielding percentage won't help to improve a pitching staff that was 26th in team ERA (4.70) while allowing the third-most free passes. The bullpen looks even worse and starter Mitch Keller gets the nod with the Pirates 12-19 in his 31 starts in 2022. He struggled badly against the Reds with a 7.07 ERA in 14 innings. Pittsburgh is 58-96 as an underdog of +100 to +150. Cincinnati was third in the majors in fielding percentage. They're in bounce-back mode after a poor campaign but had a winning record two years ago, including 44-37 at home. Second baseman Jonathan India was Rookie of the Year in 2021 and is healthy now after an injury-riddled 2022 season. Hard-throwing 23-year-old Hunter Greene is on the mound (164 Ks in 125+ innings in 2022). Batters hit .222 off him and he dominated the punchless Pirates with a 0.68 ERA in 13+ innings. Play Cincinnati.