Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pirates have won five of seven and come in off a rare road win. Cincinnati has lost three of four and they are very eratic offensively right now. Eric Milton starts for the Reds and he's just 3-6 at home with a 5.19 ERA. Paul Maholm goes for Pittsburgh and he's been very good lately. Over his last three starts he's got a 2.29 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA vs. the Reds while Milton is 1-4 with a 6.85 ERA vs. the Pirates. Pittsburgh actually has the bullpen advantage in this one too (4.73 road ERA vs. Cincinnati's 5.61 home ERA). The Reds play down to their competition as they are just 15-25 at home vs. bad teams (38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. Pirates to surprise here.