Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

This is a game where I like the long (nearly 2-to-1) odds on a big Cincinnati win at home. AJ Burnett has been solid this season, but on the road he's got a very average 4.79 ERA. Homer Bailey is very good at home, going 9-6 thanks to a 3.85 ERA and, the Reds' relievers top the majors with a 2.53 ERA. Cincinnati's offense is clicking right now, producing 6.3 runs per game over their last eight. The Pirates have been a pleasant surprise this season but let's not forget this teams' longer history. The Pirates are 40-115 on the road vs. good teams (teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game) during late season play. AJ Burnett is 31-55 on the road vs. winning teams. And, Bailey is 22-8 when facing an NL team with an OBP of 3.15 or worse. Take the nice odds on Cincinnati to win by 2+ runs.