Pittsburgh at Chicago

This total is set at 10 but that doesn't jive with how these two starting pitchers have been tossing. Granted, neither has has a good year overall, but Ross Ohlendorf has posted a 2.95 ERA over his last three starts while Rich Harden has put up a 3.00 ERA over his last three. While the Pittsburgh bullpen has been subpar, Chicago's has been great at home (3.38 ERA). The Pirates average just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season and 3.5 against division opponents. Over their last seven games, they have managed just 2.4 per game. Chicago averages just 4.5 runs per game vs. RHP so it's hard for me to see how this game reaches 11 runs. The recent history of these starters indicates this game goes UNDER.