Pittsburgh at Arizona

Sometimes you have to look at the odds on a game and make a decision if the value pendulum has swung to the extreme enough to push the value in line of the huge underdog. We have an opportunity here to back such a situation. Brandon Webb has been a top pitcher for several years, but the home record of teams in his starts has been just 34-21 for 61.8% over the last four years, while it would take 71% in this price range to breakeven. This is a classic letdown situation for the D-Backs. They are fat and happy right now - maybe overconfident. They have Webb on the mound (coming off four straight wins), they have their lead over the Dodgers in the division, they are facing a struggling pitcher, and they are coming off a comfortable 13-7 win in game one. How can they not let down here? Pittsburgh has the offense to stay in this one, especially if Arizona bats take the day off. Webb, as good as he has been is actually just 9-28 in post All-Star play vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. We will give the Pirates a go here, as the odds are longer than their true value by a fairly significant margin.