Philadelphia at St. Louis

You need pitching and defense in October and Philadelphia is ranked #18 in pitching ERA. Starter Zack Wheeler posted a dazzling 1.85 ERA at home this season but two runs higher per game on the road (3.84). Philadelphia is on a 4-10 run away from home, 17-27 after four or more straight road games, plus 47-60 versus teams that make 0.5 or fewer errors per game. Balanced St. Louis has home field and is fifth in the majors in runs scored, fourth in on-base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Defensively, the Cardinals had a Top 10 pitching staff in ERA and ranked No. 1 in fielding percentage. The Cards had a far better run differential than the Phillies (+135 to +62). Lefty Jose Quintana was a terrific acquisition and has a 2.24 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 20-13 at home against winning teams, 78-52 versus NL teams with an on-base percentage .325 or worse, and 30-10 when the money line is -100 to -150 on them. Play St. Louis.