Philadelphia at St. Louis

The Phillies are 1-4 in Cole Hamels' last five starts as a favorite and 1-4 in his last five starts overall. Hamels allowed 12 of his 19 homers on the road and he faces one of the best offenses in baseball. The Phillies are 3-5 in the last eight starts made by Cole Hamels, who has a 5.14 ERA against the Cardinals this season. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. the National League Central and 2-5 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. St. Louis has a deep lineup, one that is No. 5 in baseball in runs scored, No. 3 in on-base percentage and No. 6 in slugging. Fighting for their playoffs lives in September has been a great motivator for the Cardinals. They have been red hot at 17-6 in their last 23 overall and 9-2 in their last 11 games as an underdog. St. Louis goes with lefty Jaime Garcia (3.56, 13-7), who has been great at home with a 9-4 record and a 2.55 ERA. The Cardinals are 18-3 in Garcia's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4 in his last 15 home starts. So I like the Cardinals in Game 3 as my round 1 game of the year. In addition, both teams have strong bullpens and the Phillies are tops in baseball in team ERA. A look at trends finds a slew of UNDERs, which is understandable with the pitching and defense these teams possess. The UNDER is 16-6-1 in the Phillies last 23 overall and the UNDER is 40-17-4 in Hamels' last 61 starts overall. Tony LaRussa knows how to utilize pitchers to maximize their effectiveness, and the UNDER is 5-1 in the Cardinals last five playoffs home games and 5-1 UNDER the total in Garcia's last six home starts against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is better against righties and note that the Phillies are 5-1 UNDER the total in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter and 5-1-1 UNDER in the Phillies last seven road games against a left-handed starter. The UNDER is also 8-2-1 in the Phillies last 11 road games. Play on the Cardinals and take the UNDER.